Gas Week

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Polls tip ALP national swing of 11.7pc, which if uniform would see extraordinary outcome of Labor winning 119 of the 150 seats in House of Representatives

Posted by gasweek on 25 September, 2007

Newspoll showed Labor heading for a landslide win with 59 per cent of the two-party preferred vote compared with the coalition’s 41, according to The Australian Financial Review (5/9/2007, p. 7).

Poll defies reality: The poll was in line with a recent Galaxy poll showing Labor with a 57 per cent two-party preferred vote and the coalition on 43. But ANOP pollster Rod Cam­eron said the poll, which had Labor’s two-party preferred vote rising by 4 percentage points in a fortnight, “defied reality”.

Translates to Labor winning 119 of 150 seats in House of Representatives: Fifty-nine per cent of the two-party preferred vote translates into a national swing of 11.7 per cent, which if uniform would see the extraordinary outcome of Labor winning 119 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. Most declined to comment on the record, but National Party senator Barnaby Joyce said he believed the government needed to give the electorate a clearer idea about its fifth-term agenda.

Labor in similar losing position of 1996 election: Several backbenchers referred to the fact that the polls had narrowed significantly this close to the 2004 election, whereas in the lead-up to the 1996 election, which the coalition won, the then Labor government had been recorded in similarly consistent losing position.

The Australian Financial Review, 5/9/2007, p. 7

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